High-speed rail (TGV) services to Montpellier will ramp up from mid-December 2019

The opening of Nîmes-Pont-du-Gard TGV station in mid-December 2019 will allow the Nîmes-Montpellier bypass high-speed line and Sud de France TGV station to take off:

• TGV services at Sud de France station will triple, with around 40 additional return trips per week.
• Services to Paris will be rebalanced between the Montpellier stations:
  • 45% from Sud de France TGV station,
  • 55% from Saint Roch station, whose activity will fall by almost 20%.

Overall, TGV capacity between Montpellier and Paris* is increasing by around 25%, both in frequencies (+23%) and in seats offered (+26%):

• around 10,000 seats per day in each direction on direct Paris-Montpellier-Paris services from mid-December 2019, compared with almost 8,000 before (air capacity represents almost 1,700 seats per day in each direction, more than 1,000 of them at Orly)
• the equivalent of 3.5 additional trains per day in each direction to/from Montpellier.
• 10 daily return trips from St Roch, 8.5 from Sud de France TGV

Growth is driven by the development of low-cost Ouigo services: more than 30 weekly return services (twice the current offer), the equivalent of 3 trains out of 10 in 2020. Load factors on OUIGO trains are much higher than on INOUI trains, often above 80%.

• Conventional TGV services will grow moderately, by +8%.
• The number of frequencies, at both St Roch and Sud de France, will be relatively even across the week: 18 return trips from Monday to Thursday, with variations at the weekend – a schedule reinforced by 2 to 4 additional return trips on Fridays and Sundays and reduced on Saturdays to 16 return trips.
• 130 weekly return services on the Paris-Montpellier route: 72 between St Roch and Paris and 58 between Sud de France and Paris.
• In 2020, faster journeys will be more frequent: one journey in three will be around 10 minutes shorter (3h20 instead of 3h30)

What are the consequences for air services between Paris and Montpellier and for future traffic levels?

• Air capacity between Paris and Montpellier does not appear to be affected by these changes at this stage, with growth of around +5% on the Orly route in 2020.
• One schedule change is worth noting:

Air France is adding 2 extra Sunday frequencies between Orly and Montpellier in the winter season (January to March 2020)

• Given the increase in TGV capacity – including Ouigo – on the Montpellier-Paris route from mid-December 2019 (750,000 additional seats per year in each direction), rail could “arithmetically” take 20% to 25% of the current traffic on the Paris Orly air route by 2021.

This estimate assumes that 10% of the additional rail traffic will be a transfer from the Montpellier-Orly air route.

This assessment should be qualified in view of:

• The fact that capacity is growing mainly on Ouigo and at Sud de France station: new demand created by low Ouigo fares, which is therefore not diverted from air traffic, and no tram link between the station and the city centre before 2022.

• The ability of airlines to respond in terms of capacity and pricing strategy on the low-yield segment.

* TGV capacity between Montpellier and Paris includes only direct services (excluding connections / transit via Lyon Part-Dieu) between the Montpellier stations of Saint Roch / Sud de France TGV and the Paris stations of Gare de Lyon / Marne-la-Vallée / Roissy CDG2.