Changes in the international flight schedules of European airlines

The gradual lifting of health and lockdown measures is allowing a tentative recovery of air traffic in June 2020.

• 14,000 aircraft – 56% of the world’s commercial aircraft fleet – were still grounded at the end of May 2020, with Europe the hardest hit, with more than 4,800 aircraft unable to fly.
• As of 22 June 2020 (source: OAG, “Official Aviation Guide of the Airways”), only 13% of European airlines’ international capacity [1] is being operated in the week of 23 to 29 June 2020, compared with the flight schedules drawn up by the airlines before the Covid-19 pandemic (end of December 2019).

A more substantial recovery is planned for the summer high season, building up gradually over July and August:

• Many destinations relaunched: KLM, for example, plans to operate 80% of its European network and 75% of its intercontinental routes in July, then 95% and 80% respectively in August.
• Flight frequencies still limited, well below those of the same period last year or of previous schedules: roughly 1 in 2.
  • In July 2020 – according to OAG data – European airlines plan to cancel 47% of the schedule they had planned six months earlier.

Airlines are monitoring any significant change in demand on a daily basis and adjusting their very short-term schedules accordingly.

On top of the health decisions of the authorities, which allow a more or less rapid “technical” recovery of air capacity, there are many uncertainties weighing on the level of demand: a pandemic in full expansion in Latin America and still very active in the United States, a few clusters of resurgence in China, and rising virus reproduction rates in some French regions and in Germany.

Airlines will have to keep showing agility to manage both the very short term and future horizons, driven by restructuring plans: smaller networks and fleets, with the corollary of workforce reductions.

The high season is therefore crucial for all European airlines.

The first days of July will give us a clearer picture of the high season: this will be the subject of our next update.

[1] International capacity expressed in seats offered from the main airports or “hubs” of European airlines (11 airlines in our panel)